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By Tony Stevenson/SWBC Mortgage
Concerns over a euro breakup stifled a rally Friday leaving the DOW to close at 11,866.39 for the week. Here in the U.S., Congress seems to have worked out a short-term deal to extend the tax cuts for the middle class while the GOP attached a bill that forces the administration to make a decision on the Canadian-U.S. oil pipeline deal in the next 60 days.
The nations job market is healthier than at any time since the great depression according to a recent article in the S.A. Express News. The same article continued to state that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since May 2008, a sign that the waves of corporate layoffs that have defined the past few years are all but over.
The National Retail Federation said it now expects the holiday sales for the November and December period to rise 3.8 percent to a record $469.1 billion. That’s up from its more modest 2.8 percent forecast made in early October. Uncle Ben and the boys (the Fed) met last week and portrayed the U.S. economy as slightly healthier and held off on any new steps to boost the economy. The Fed’s job is to monitor inflation and determine how it will react to inflationary pressures. They have promised to keep interest rates low and have even said they have other means or tools to address those concerns should the occasion arise.
To keep up with demand, U.S. businesses increased their stockpiles by a seasonably 0.8 percent in October. Another small-but welcomed early Christmas present is that crude oil prices dropped after OPEC countries decided to boost its official production quotas which helped cause oil to drop to $94.95 a barrel. I paid $2.99 a gallon this past week. I was actually happy paying under $3.00 a gallon for once.
Local Economic News
“S.A. is named nation’s top-performing city” was a headline in last week’s S.A. Express News. The Milken Institute has ranked San Antonio as the nation’s best-performing city for 2011 in its annual ranking of 200 metropolitan areas. The City ranked 14th in 2010. Reasons given for the jump in rank include the military realignment, drilling in the Eagle Ford Shale, and the growth of health care. Overall, Texas cities dominated the top of the Best-Performing Cities list, with El Paso ranking #2, and Austin-Round Rock at #4. The Texas State Comptroller’s Office said that Texas’ economy is moving more fully into recovery with job growth and higher than-expected tax revenues. Good news continued for San Antonio-area job seekers in November when 1100 jobs were created and the cities unemployment rate fell to a 16-month low t of 7.2% according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Austin’s jobless rate is at 6.8% compared with the State’s rate of 8.1%.
Real Estate and Mortgage Industry News
Another recent headline stated, “S.A. Home Sales-Slow and Steady”. The San Antonio real estate market appears to be wrapping up a year that looks much like 2010, the article stated. The area’s median home price was $152,000 compared to 2010 at $149,000. “San Antonio has always been a slow and steady market,” said Scott Caballero, outgoing chairman of the board of SABOR (S.A. Board of Realtors). Keep in mind that San Antonio and Austin’s real estate market has a trickle-down effect to the Texas Hill Country. Both cities economy are doing well, which has had a very positive outlook for homebuyers to the areas.
Finally, Freddie Mac reported Mortgage rates on the 30 year fixed rate index fell to 3.94%, matching the record-low set briefly in October. Do you want to give yourself an early Christmas present? Look at buying investment properties. Mortgage rates are low in that area as well. Plus, home prices have stabilized causing more buyers to enter the playing field.
Economic Data Due this week: This is the week for home indexes. But, do not forget the Euro zone and how markets will react this week. Monday: Home Builders Index. Tuesday: New Home Starts. Wednesday: Existing Home Sales. Thursday: GDP. Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Thursday: Freddie Mac releases weekly Mortgage rates. Thursday: Consumer Sentiment Index. Friday: New Home Sales. Friday: Durable Goods Orders. Friday: Consumer Spending.
( This article is for informational purposes only. Do not use this article as financial advice. If you do not want to receive this email, please reply “remove” in the subject line. For questions or comments, please call Tony Stevenson at 1.800.460.6990 or email: tstevenson@swbc.com)
Sincerely,
Tony
Stevenson
SWBC
9311 San Pedro Ave., Suite 100
San Antonio, TX 78216
800.460.6990 - Toll Free
210.376.6133 - Direct
866.782.9318 - Fax
210.846.4666 - Mobile
NMLS# 216213
Visit our website at www.swbc.com
Apply on-line at: www.swbcmortgage.com/stevenson
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By Tony Stevenson/SWBC Mortgage
Stocks finished mostly flat Friday as the DOW ended at 11,796.16 but, down from the previous week. The European debt crisis seems to be weighing heavily on all markets for the time being. However, the positive seems to be outweighing the negative economic picture here at home in the U.S. A string of better-than-expected economic reports this month has led some analysts to revise their forecasts for growth, according to an article in the S.A. Express News on Saturday. The most recent sign was Friday’s report by the Conference Board that its index of leading indicators surged 0.9 percent. The index is designed to predict economic activity. The October reading was its sixth consecutive increase. This past week, the government said Retail Sales in October and factory production were picking up. Plus, U.S. building permits , a gauge of future construction, surged nearly 11 percent. I bet you won’t hear any of this wonderful economic news in any of the debates. Consumers paid less for gas, cars, and computers in October, as the Consumer Price Index (retail prices paid by consumers) dropped 0.1 percent. Production was up 0.7 percent for October, the most in three months plus, Builder Sentiment rose to 20 in November-that’s the highest level since May 2010. Did you also notice in the news that jobless claims are getting better-little by little? “388,000 level marks first time in 7 months that its been below 400,000,” was headline regarding the jobs reports just last week. Jobs for Veterans received a boost as a little part of President Obama’s jobs bill was approved by Congress last week. All good news and just in time for the Christmas Season-except for the fact that we have a bunch of “turkeys” on the so called “Super Committee” that can’t come to agreement on cutting the deficit and raising taxes. Our economy is politics-driven for the time being. You be the judge as to who is causing any slowdown in economic activity and jobs.
Even though this is a short week because of the Thanksgiving Holiday, there is a lot of economic activity and reports due all the way through Wednesday. Make it a point to watch how these reports turn out. See below: Economic Data due this week.
Local Economic News
A big “Thank-You” goes out to HEB. The Texas retail grocery chain opened 4 new HEB Plus stores this past week generating 700 Texas jobs. Locally, Boerne and Kerrville had simultaneous openings on Friday and just in time for Thanksgiving shoppers. HEB is doing its part for our Texas economy.
“1500 oil jobs coming to city” was another headline this past week regarding oil industry giant-Halliburton’s plans to hire 75 percent locally (San Antonio area). “This is great news. It’s the biggest single-day announcement San Antonio has had since Toyota,” said former Mayor Henry Cisneros, chairman of the S.A. Economic Development Foundation. As a matter of fact, San Antonio’s jobless rate fell from 8% to 7.7% last month. It’s the first decline in the monthly rate since February, and if drilling in the Eagle Ford shale keeps going strong (as is predicted) the unemployment number could decline faster in the months ahead for Texas, and especially the Alamo City area including South Texas and the Texas Hill Country. Texas’ unemployment rate is 8.4%. “Private employers continue to invest their capital in the growing Texas workforce,” said Texas Workforce Commission Chairman Tom Pauken in a recent statement.
Real Estate and Mortgage Industry News
The San Antonio area housing market continued a solid performance in October. The number of sales in October rose to 1,349, up 5 percent compared with the same time last year. I talked with some realtors involved in the Highland Lakes Women Council of Realtors in Marble Falls recently and the sentiment is that sales activity has picked up in that area as more buyers seem to be entering the market. I am hearing the same across the Texas Hill Country, including Kerrville, Blanco, Fredericksburg, and Johnson City. Low mortgage rates continue to play a huge part in that activity. Freddie Mac reported that the 30 year fixed rate index ticked-up to 4% last week-up from 3.99% the week before. The housing sector plays a crucial part in our economic growth as well. Construction workers, inspectors, and appraisers all play a very important part in housing growth.
As foreclosures enter the market, I believe these distressed sales should be “excluded” from the appraisal process. Foreclosed property numbers do not represent a home’s true value in my opinion. But, the appraisers hands are tied. Appraisers are required to use “sold” foreclosure numbers when reporting recent comps. Maybe the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors could join forces and bring the issue up for a resolution? In the meantime, if you know of anyone looking to buy into the American Dream, have them contact a local Realtor and Mortgage Lender while the getting is good!
Economic Data due this week: Monday: Existing Home Sales report for October. Tuesday: 3rd Quarter GDP released. Wednesday: Weekly Jobless claims. Wednesday: Freddie Mac releases weekly mortgage rates. Wednesday: FOMC Minutes released from November meeting. Wednesday: Durable Goods Report for October. Wednesday: Personal Income and Spending for October. Thursday: Markets closed for Thanksgiving. Friday: Stock Markets closed at 1PM EST. Friday: Bond Markets closed at 2pm EST.
(This article is for informational purposes only. Do not use it as financial advice. If you would like to be removed from this email, please reply “remove” in the subject line. For questions/comments contact Tony Stevenson at 1.800.460.6990 or email: tstevenson@swbc.com)
Tony Stevenson can be reached at:
SWBC
9311 San Pedro Ave., Suite 100
San Antonio, TX 78216
800.460.6990 - Toll Free
210.376.6133 - Direct
866.782.9318 - Fax
210.846.4666 - Mobile
NMLS# 216213
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By Tony Stevenson/SWBC Mortgage
Economic News Week: November 7, 2011
The Dow Jones Industrial average fell 61.23 points, or 0.5 percent and ended at 11,983.24 for the week this past Friday. Our nation’s unemployment report remains on shaky ground. However, it did drop slightly to 9.00% in October, down from 9.1% just the month before. More government layoffs (-24,000) didn’t help the jobs report but private sector employers added +104,000 and isn’t that where we need employment growth? Of course it is, but you will only hear “jabs and barbs” from both sides of the political isle that we need more jobs and that their independent plans for job growth is the “only” plan that will work. The fact remains that we did have positive job growth and that is the way to a more real economic recovery. Plus, consumer spending which holds about 70% of our nation’s economic growth factor. August and September employment numbers turned out to be much better months for job creation than previously thought. Jobs and consumer spending-no matter how you slice it- is what counts. The question is, “ how do we get there from here?” There’s the “999” plan raised by presidential hopeful, Herman Cain. Or, the 20% flat tax rule from our own Texas Governor, Rick Perry. But what about President Obama’s job creation plan being debated now in Congress? The 1% versus the 99% is yet another contest yet to be played out. We have almost exactly 12 months to decide the outcome of the next presidential race and what direction our nation will take. I am optimistic that whomever wins, the best of our nation will shine.
Local Economic News
Mark Dotzour, chief economist of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University says there’s a slow, gradual recovery in progress (nationwide) in an article in last week’s S.A. Express News. I might also add, that Texas is faring better than most states as our State’s job growth continues in the oil and gas sector-by leaps and bounds. Regarding profits alone, San Antonio based refiner Tesoro Corp. said last Wednesday that its third quarter earnings reached their highest level since mid-2007. Plus, San Antonio based contract driller Pioneer Drilling Co. Inc. reported a net income of $6.7 million beating analyst’s predictions. Pretty strong earnings if I say so myself. But, if you’re anything like me, I would like to see a lot more help at the pump. If anything to have a little bit more discretionary spending cash in my pocket. Or, I may have to do a little protesting myself of the big oil companies and start riding my horse to work.
In another article in last week’s S.A. Express News, Texas women are closing the earnings gap with their male counterparts. The article continued to state that The Bureau of Labor and Statistics reported last Wednesday- Texas women earned 85.6 percent of the median salary for men in 2010. Texas is one of only seven states where the ratio tops 85 percent.
Real Estate and Mortgage Industry News
Builders reported a 0.2% increase in spending last month. A well-deserved increase no matter the size. It was also reported that San Antonio’s commercial real estate is rebounding which was the message at the 20th annual San Antonio-South Texas Certified Commercial Investment Symposium held at the Westin La Cantera Resort last week. “After three long years and I mean long years---- we are now finally beginning to see the pendulum swing,” said Wade McGinnis, a partner at Barshop & Oles co., who was a speaker at the event.
Freddie Mac reported that the 30 year fixed rate index dropped to 4% this past week-if only briefly. I realize that I sound like a broken record, but with mortgage rates at these levels, I am almost in shock that not more folks are taking advantage of the times. Yes, there are those few smart folks that know a good deal when they see it, but then again I hear of some folks thinking that rates are going to drop a lot further. If you know of one of these, ask them this, “just how much further do rates have to drop in order to get them to consider taking the plunge and buy into the American dream of home ownership?” Mortgage rates are already in the 3.5%-4.5% range. That’s cheaper than some of our grandparents could buy a home in their time! Keep in mind too, that in San Antonio/Austin and the Texas Hill Country, home prices have stabilized and even increased in some areas. I am afraid that by the time those few “waiting it out” will “miss out” on the chance of a lifetime. Tell them to find a local Realtor and Mortgage Lender to seek advice from and confirm what I am saying here in this article.
Economic data due this week: Greece decides on major economic overhaul this week. More Corporate earnings for the 3rd qtr will be released. Monday: Consumer Credit Data report for September. Tuesday: Election Day. Wednesday: Wholesale Trade Inventory report for September. Thursday: International Trade Balance=U.S. Imports vs Exports. Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Thursday: Freddie Mac releases weekly interest rates. Friday: Veterans Day. Bond Markets will be closed.
Quote of the week!
A mistake is evidence that someone tried to do something.
-----Croft M. Pentz
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Ingram, Kerr County
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Announcing a price reduction
on 00 Quail Run, a lot / land. Now
MLS®
$56,000
- Reduced!.
Property information
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Comfort, Kendall County
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Announcing a new listing
on 11 Country Lane, a 1,805 sq. ft., 2 bath, 3 bdrm single story. Now
MLS®
$245,000
- .
Property information
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By Tony Stevenson/SWBC Mortgage
Economic News Week: October 24, 2011
The DOW ended up at 11808.79 on Friday. “Stocks rally on strong earnings report”, was a headline in the S.A. Express News this past Saturday. The article continued to state that the DOW has been up 4 straight weeks in a row, the first time that has happened since January of this year. The combination of strong corporate earnings, better economic news and a sense European officials were taking their debt crisis more seriously have helped lift stocks-a comment by Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors stated. The quarterly earnings season is off to a strong start. Of the 118 companies that reported earnings so far, 75 percent have beaten estimates according to financial data provider Fact-Set. One earnings report said that Citigroup’s third quarter earnings rose 74 percent. Wells Fargo results stated an increase in net income of more than 20%. Do you think there is any correlation to corporate earnings as to why the “Wall Street” protestors are doing what they’re doing? All these corporate profit reports without strong job growth may be just one of the main reasons. The question most folks have to answer for themselves is not the cause of our economic woes, but the cure.
Local Economic News
An earthquake just south of San Antonio caused a little stir- but no damage this past week. The earthquake registered at 4.3. An item of concern was the cause-possible fracking form the Eagle Ford Shale. However, it was quickly dismissed as one geologist suggested that the center of the earthquake and depth-was far below whatever “fracking” below the surface there may have been.
I don’t know about you but, I think the cooler weather has had a definite positive impact-if anything-just on personal attitude. It seemed to me that folks were a little happier and attitudes were on the positive side of things versus the negative this past week. I know I was. Even with no rain up until recently, the cooler weather has had a positive impact which in turn I think- has helped our economy. Isn’t it amazing what a little “good” weather can do for our economy and our smiles?
If you’re interested, the 43rd annual International Car and Truck show begins this Thursday thru Sunday in San Antonio. Local auto dealers will be displaying their new cars and trucks. The retail auto sales industry has taken a hit in the past regarding purchases during these tough economic times. It seems the auto sales business has taken a turn for the better. This is good news for our local economy.
Real Estate and Mortgage Industry News
According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates took a small dip last week. The rate dropped to 4.11% from 4.12% for the 30 year fixed rate index. Also reported last week, home builders started projects in September at the fastest pace in 17 months, another hopeful sign for the economy. Plus, home builders were less pessimistic the National Association of Home Builders said last Tuesday. They reported that their Index of Builder Sentiment report this month rose 2 points. A small increase but none the less- an increase!
“Before you do anything, anything at all, you should make sure you are pre-qualified for the financing,” said real estate agent Trey King in today’s S.A. Express News. The report stated that before home buyers, especially first-time home buyers, enter the market, they always ask how they can prepare for the daunting task of buying a new home. Which is why getting pre-qualified is so important. Realtors do not like showing prospective home buyers homes unless they have at least been pre-qualified. I might also add that those wishing to get pre-qualified use local Mortgage Lenders and Realtors. Yes, there is still the internet but, borrowers do not get the same type of one-on-one personal service as they would by using local Realtors and Lenders. Plus, you could get bad advice. At least by using local folks, borrowers can get sound advice from taking advantage of the “personal and consultative” approach to the home buying process. Using such internet lenders as Hanging Tree or DieTech (yes, I’m being funny with the names) could be more trouble than its worth. Would you use an internet doctor, dentist, or any other health professional with your health issues? Then why would you trust and use an internet home buying service or lender with one of the most important purchases of your life?
Economic Data due this week: Continued 3rd quarter corporate earnings. Tuesday: Case-Shillers Index of Home Prices for August. Tuesday: Consumer Confidence Index for October. Wednesday: Durable Goods Report for September. Wednesday: New Home Sales report for September. Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Thursday: Freddie Mac releases weekly mortgage rates. Thursday: Pending Home Sales Index for September. Friday: Personal Income and Spending report for September.
Quote of the week!
You cannot solve a problem until you acknowledge that you have one
And accept responsibility for solving it. --------Zig Ziglar
REAL ESTATE BY DESIGN
713 WATER STREET
KERRVILLE, TEXAS 78028
TONI MANCHESTER, BROKER/OWNER
0584247
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By Tony Stevenson/SWBC Mortgage
Economic News Week: October 17, 2011
In less than two weeks, U.S. stocks have staged a remarkable recovery that saw some major indexes climb from the depths of near-market despair to positive territory for the year. The DOW climbed this past Friday 166.36 points or 1.45% to 11644, taking its gains since early last week to 12%. It is also now up 0.58% for the year. The recent gains were attributed to progress that the European debt crisis seems to be coming to a resolution. Plus, the U.S. positive economic data played a part as well.--All this in the Wall Street Journal’s weekend edition. Google reported way better than expected gains as Q3 earnings continue this week.
Confidence among U.S. small companies rose in September from a 13 month low, a private survey found. The National Federation of Independent Business’ index climbed to 88.9%, the first gain in seven months. The U.S. Retail Sales Report rose 1.1% for September, the biggest jump since February. The weekly jobless report fell slightly again last week. All of this is good news regarding our economy. I really haven’t seen much of any so called “bad” economic news this past week. Except from what I hear form certain political candidates.
Local Economic News
The Eagle Ford Shale continues to make the news in Texas as the windfall of oil and gas leases in Texas are gaining momentum. A huge economic boom for our state and South Texas continues. Texas Railroad Commission Chairwoman Elizabeth Jones extolled the economic benefits of drilling in the Eagle Ford Shale Wednesday saying its production is adding significantly to state coffers. Certain problems still exist regarding employment issues as there seems to be a shortage of truck drivers. If you know of anyone looking for a job, now could be the best time in years to find gainful employment. The income from these jobs is not too shabby either.
Real Estate and Mortgage Industry News
In a report in last week’s S.A. Express News, the article stated that the median price of a home in the San Antonio area is up, but the number of sales were down only slightly. Foreclosure postings were flat compared with the same month last year. The median home price for Bexar County for 2011 is $152,500 compared to $149,500 for the same month last year as well. SmartMoney.com columnist, Jack Hough wrote, “Houses aren’t the magic wealth creators they were made out to be during the bubble. But when prices are low, loans are cheap , and plump investment yields are scarce, buyers should jump.” So, is it cheaper to buy than rent? Mr. Hough uses this example in Phoenix , Az.: A median home price of $121,700 with a 20% down payment and a 4.124% mortgage rate, a buyer’s monthly payment would be about $470. Rent for a comparable house would be more than $1,100 a month, according to data provided by Zillow.com.
FHA new-revised loan limits are as follows for these counties: Bexar and Kendall Counties= $287,500 (revised from $332,500. Bandera, Blanco, Gillespie, and Kerr counties remain at= $271,050.
Finally, Freddie Mac reported that the 30 year fixed rate rose sharply to 4.12% this past week. Does this mean you should run to your local Real Estate agent and find the home of your dreams before rates or home prices rise further? I would have to say, yes. And for good reason-not only could rates go higher, but lending standards could tighten up further as well. Making it even harder to qualify for a home loan. But, keep this in mind: If you have good credit, a good job, good income, and a good down payment, you will qualify for a home loan. Even if you have a few “credit challenges”, find a local Realtor and Mortgage Lender to see how much you may qualify for. There is No-Cost to get pre-qualified. Then you can begin the house-hunt. Which reminds me, Whitetail deer hunting season begins soon. Another economic booster for the Texas Hill Country and South Texas!
Economic Data due this week: Q3 earnings still arrive this week-such as Wells Fargo and Citi Group Inc. Tuesday: PPI (Producer Price Index)=prices at the wholesale level. Wednesday: CPI (Consumer Price Index) prices paid by consumers at the retail level. Wednesday: Housing Starts. Wednesday: Beige Book= Fed report examining economic conditions in a variety of sectors across the country. Thursday: Weekly Jobless claims. Thursday: Freddie Mac released weekly mortgage rates. Thursday: Existing Home Sales Report for September.
Quote of the week!
Here’s your “whether” report:
Whether you do or you don’t is your choice.
But remember there are consequences for
those choices.
----A.W. Stevenson
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The Horizon, Kerrville
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Announcing a price reduction
on 110 Kerr Canyon Pass, a 4,500 sq. ft., 4 bath, 4 bdrm single story "Mediterranean/Tuscan". Now
MLS®
$1,080,000
- Reduced!.
Property information
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Economic News Week:
July 18, 2011
Stocks advanced this past Friday
ending at 12479 as Google reported huge earnings (a 36% jump in profits)and a
corporate takeover of Petrohawk Energy which was purchased by BHP Billiton
Australia helped the advance in stocks. The energy sector was the biggest
advancer on Friday.
Lower gas prices helped
consumers in June as U.S. inflation fell for the month. Gas prices
fell 6.8%, the deepest decline in 2 1/2 years. The Consumer Price Index
fell 0.2 percent in June the labor department said. Retail Sales
were up slightly for June as well. A larger U.S. corn crop is easing
concerns of a grain shortage and could slow food inflation this year.
Financial giant J.P. Morgan Chase reported better than expected profits
for the 2nd quarter. In anticipation of larger than
expected corporate earnings, the question still remains, “where are the jobs?”.
We get more corporate earnings this week from Bank of America, Apple, and Coca
Cola to name just a few.
Bernanke and the Boys (Fed) may
be talking about another QE3 or intervention as it may-if the economy continues
to slump. This will be a wait and see game depending on jobs and
inflation. Another game to watch is the Debt-Ceiling game played by both
parties. House Republican members said they would vote on a bill tying a
$2.4 trillion debt-ceiling increase to spending cuts and a balanced-budget
amendment. What happened to the $4 trillion in cuts that everyone says we
need? More political posturing is about all I am seeing from both
parties. Americans will remember who was willing to compromise and who
was “locked into ideologically rigid positions,” President Obama said in
a White House news conference recently. Our U.S. credit rating is what is at
stake if a debt-ceiling agreement is not reached. How far-reaching the
consequences would be if an agreement is not made is up for debate as
well. I just don’t want to have to find out. The so-called
“cure-all” for our slumping economy is jobs. When Americans are working,
they are paying their bills and spending their money buying certain products,
buying homes, electronics, etc. Congress seems to have no problem in
making Americans squirm. I’ll bet at the next elections, they’ll
(Congress) be the ones squirming; Democrats and Republicans alike.
Local Economic News
Once again, San Antonio has
scored another job maker-Baker Hughs Inc. which is an oilfield supplier.
The company plans on building a $30 million operations center in Southeast
Bexar County bringing an estimated 435 fulltime jobs by the year 2013.
Hopefully, the company can find enough workers to fill the positions.
Reported just last week, some local businesses are having to hire
“headhunters’ to find enough qualified workers, especially in the software
market. Also reported last week is that the San Antonio and Austin
tourism industry is attempting to use the “web” as a different marketing tool
in order to lure visitors who in-turn spend their money at local
restaurants, hotels, theme parks, etc. Now, that is what I like to
see-Cities that invest in order to achieve a more robust local economy. A
headline read last week that “San Antonio ranked No. 4 ‘Boom Town’. San
Antonio ranked No. 4 among the nation’s next ‘boom towns’ in a recent
Forbes magazine article. Austin is ranked No.1, Houston # 5 and
Dallas # 7. “ Aided by relatively low housing prices and buoyant economies,
these Lone Star cities have become major hubs for jobs and families,” according
to the article by Joel Kotkin.
Local Real Estate and
Mortgage News
San Antonio’s Real Estate market
for resale homes looks OK halfway through the year according to a report in the
S.A. Express News last week. “The numbers actually are pretty good,” said
James Gaines, research economist with the Real estate center at Texas A&M.
San Antonio and Austin are holding steady when a year when home buyers have not
had any federal tax credits to hang their hat on. “This year, the year
over year comparisons in the second half of 2011 should start to look rosier;
Gaines said. The local rental-house market is doing better as well,
related in a different report.
The Wall Street Journal reported
this past weekend that “Big Mortgages” are back. The article continued to
state that low interest rates are driving high-end home buyers to supersized
mortgages at a pace unseen since the housing boom. Jumbo loans are loans
that are bigger than $417,000. The average rate on a jumbo loan mortgage
is about 5.15% on a 30 year fixed index. Only two years ago jumbo rates where
averaging around 6.41% for the same term. Freddie Mac reported that
conforming rates dropped slightly last week to 4.51%. Conforming or
Non-conforming (jumbo), now is a terrific time to buy a home. But
BEWARE! If Congress defaults on our debt by NOT raising the
debt-ceiling, rates will jump on everything from Credit cards,
Automobiles, and Mortgages! A little advice: Lock-In a mortgage rate now
in order to head-off any volatility. Find a local Realtor and Mortgage
Lender and let them be your guide.
Economic Data due this week: Both sides of the isle are going to be in deep
discussions regarding the ‘debt-ceiling’. Plus, Corporate earnings
for the 2nd quarter continue to roll-in. Tuesday:
Housing Starts for June. Wednesday: Existing Home sales
report. Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Thursday:
Freddie Mac releases weekly mortgage rates. Thursday: Philly
Manufacturing Survey released.
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By Tony Stevenson/SWBC Mortgage Economic News Week: March 14, 2011 The DOW finished down for the week ending last Friday with modest gains ending at 12044. The disaster in Japan hasn’t had much of an effect on stocks but the reports of the devastation are still coming in. Especially, the nuclear meltdown chances at one of its nuclear plants. Japan is the World’s 3rd largest economy. Here at home, American’s spending was up 6% in February. The economy still needs companies to do the same thing. Businesses have stock piled nearly $1.9 trillion in cash, the government said last Thursday. Consumer borrowing rose 2.5% in January according to a report by the Federal Reserve. It was the fourth consecutive gain. Americans are a bit less dependent on oil and gas, according to a recent report in the New York Times. In 2008 we were caught almost by surprise by how much gas had risen. This time around most Americans are prepared as they traded in their gas guzzlers for gas savers. Fears still remain as the middle east supply is still being disrupted. But, fear vs. reserves is what is driving gas prices upward. The recovery here in the U.S. should be able to handle this disruption. Local Economic News San Antonio’s unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% in January from 7.6% in December. “I think this is the year that we will really start to see some movement downward in the unemployment rate,” said Steve Nivin-a St Mary’s economist. The Eagle Ford is helping to fuel the area’s economy as well. According to a report in the S.A. Express News, development of the Eagle Ford shale, a vast oil and gas region, shows promise by being the most important economic generator South Texas has ever seen. 6,800 full time jobs have been contributed to the region so far. When other spin-off jobs were added to the tally---everything from oil field support to the waiters serving driller’s food---the numbers jumped to 12,600 jobs. By 2020, the Eagle Ford is expected to account for an estimated $21.5 billion in economic output and support 68,000 full-time jobs in South Texas. Real Estate and Mortgage Industry News The Real Estate market is improving. The question is, “how do we keep it improving and at a faster pace?” If we had a crystal ball or new the answers then there wouldn’t be a need for the question(s). However, this is not the case. One thing for sure is, if you are interested in buying a home, you had better do it now-than later. As Ken Harney said in his weekly article in the San Antonio Business Journal, “take a snapshot of today’s mortgage market conditions and frame it.” “That’s the inescapable conclusion of the Obama administration’s “white-paper” on optional remedies for the two ailing giants on housing finance--Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ,” he said. Besides gradually fading Fannie and Freddie out, consumer borrowing costs are going to increase-such as add-on costs and higher rates, along with qualifications relating to FICO credit scores and increasing down payment requirements. Among the proposals: Make 20%-30% down payments the minimum to meet he “qualified” test. If you only have enough money for a small down payment, you’ll be charged significantly higher rates he concluded. In short, find a local Realtor and Mortgage lender and get busy while the times are good. Why pay more when you can pay less-Now? Freddie Mac reported that the 30 year fixed rate index rose to 4.88% from 4.87% last week-just so you are aware.
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By Tony Stevenson/SWBC Mortgage Economic News Week: February 28, 2011 U.S. stocks rose breaking a three day losing streak with the DOW closing up 61.95 points at 12130.45 this past Friday. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2010. This was down from its initial estimate of 3.2% but still at an acceleration from previous quarters. The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 77.5 in February, up from 74.2 in January and the highest level in three years. Improved outlooks on the job market outweighed rising food prices and energy prices. Everyone knows that oil and gas prices have surged this past week on the crisis in Libya. However, I’m surprised U.S. markets haven’t fallen further than they have. One headline stated that, “Even though the U.S. doesn’t use Libyan oil, the global nature of crude pricing is key.” The U.S. dollar advanced on the euro and Swiss franc , though geopolitical uncertainty in North Africa and the Middle East remained at the back of investor’s minds. Lots of unrest overseas as well as here at home. Especially, with what’s happening in Wisconsin and the public unions. I’ll be watching with the rest of the nation to see how it all comes to rest-if it ever will. Local Economic News: The city of Cibolo has a new employment partner. The U.S. arm of a Canadian oil-field service company has chosen Cibolo as the site of a district office that will become the city’s largest employer, officials said Thursday. Sanjel (USA) Inc. based in Denver plans to hire “several hundred” workers for the Cibolo office. Development in the Eagle Ford shale for oil and gas is expanding rapidly and is attracting investment from U.S. as well as international companies. South Texas will become one of the state’s fastest-growing areas for new business and job creation over the next decade, a group of experts said Wednesday in a report in the S.A. Express News last week. That’s if they can get the oil out. Pipelines are already full and companies are having to truck it out or ship it by rail. I was at a restaurant in South Texas over Christmas and was caught up in a conversation of some of the patrons saying that new hotels were already being built and that local real estate is being bought up or leased. They said they do not expect this oil and gas boom to last forever but, it is expected to be around for the next 8-10 years. So, expect Texas’ unemployment numbers to drop further as time goes by. The question may be, “where are the taxes?”; as our Congress tries to pass its budget without complaints from their public. To promote tourism or education is another quandary our Congress faces. The super majority have their hands full. Hopefully, not at the cost of our children and their future. Real Estate and Mortgage Industry News “Is It Time To Buy?”, was a headline in the Wall Street Journal’s weekend edition. The relationship between the national housing market and local markets is breaking down and opportunities are cropping up for well-healed borrowers, the article stated. Home prices nationwide in December were down more than 31% from their 2006 peak according to the Case-Shiller Index, including a 4.1% fall in 2010. A shadow inventory of more foreclosures isn’t going to help sellers in 2011 either. It is still a buyers’ market-but for how long? Turning the page in the same WSJ edition, was another headline that read, “Getting a Mortgage Before The Door Shuts.” This article was full of ‘things to come’ regarding the mortgage industry. “If you are sitting on the fence trying to decide whether to buy a new house or refinance a mortgage, you should act soon. New loans are starting to get costlier,” said Karen Blumenthal of the WSJ. Some of the changes will come in the form of larger down payment requirements, higher MI (mortgage insurance) premiums, and higher FICO (credit)scores, just to name a few. They could be coming sooner than you think. The silver lining is that the rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage is around 5% for those with good credit. This is still low by historical standards. Take my previous advice and find a local Realtor and Mortgage loan officer and take advantage of the these times.
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By Tony Stevenson/SWBC Mortgage
Economic News Week: February 7, 2011
Last Friday the DOW ended above the 12K mark which was the first time to reach such levels in about 2 1/2 years. With the current Egypt crisis and concerns about oil prices, reaching such levels is a great feat all being considered. The three "E"'s--- -Egypt, Earnings, and the Economy are affecting U.S. and worldwide markets. Here in the U.S. all seems to be heading in the right direction as the U.S. has the most improved economy in the world as reported by the Wall Street Journal. Strong corporate earnings are prevailing and beating most predictions. Auto sales are up across the board. GM reported an impressive 23% increase. Exxon, Visa, and UPS reported way better than expected earnings too. What's happening in Egypt was bound to happen sooner or later when you take into account that folks over there spend 78% of their income dollars on food alone. What's impressive is how the U.S. markets responded in the 'positive' last week. One positive point is that unemployment fell to 9.00% which is proving once again that our economy is on the mend. That is the best level since April 2009. Most economists expected just a 1% decrease for the whole year in 2011 and already it has fallen almost that amount in just the last 2 months. For our economy to keep growing at a faster pace, corporate America has to start hiring more folks. With corporate earnings being what they are, then more hiring shouldn't be too far off. One economist put it this way, "our economy is on track---warts and all." Fed chief Ben Bernanke said, "there is increased evidence of a self-sustaining economic recovery." The Fed chief was unusually upbeat on the U.S. economy's outlook in a speech last week at the National Press Club.
Local Economic News
In his weekly article in the SBJ (San Antonio Business Journal), economist M. Ray Perryman wrote: Although Texas is known as a place of wide open spaces, it's the state's metropolitan areas that drive the economy. The Lone Star State is home to three of the 10 largest urban centers in the U.S. (Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas) and others in the top 20 (Austin and Ft Worth). Mr Perryman also stated that the San Antonio area's relative economic strength include the ongoing contributions of health care, bio science, and cyber security. Austin has recently been noted as among the 10 cities best situated for economic recovery and has been cited by Newsweek for its job growth over the past decade as well as during 2010. These large urban centers are linked to communities across the state through vendor and supplier relationships. Growth in these cities provides opportunities for all Texans Mr. Perymann concluded.
Real Estate and Mortgage Industry News
As mentioned above, I can attest to the fact that what happens in San Antonio has an affect in the Texas Hill Country. One positive affect is that some folks want to buy homes in the Hill Country and commute to San Antonio/Austin. Boerne, Blanco, Bandera, Kerrville, Fredericksburg, Johnson City, New Braunfels are those communities best suited for folks who want the country lifestyle but work in the metropolitan cities. All are within an hours drive to San Antonio and/or Austin. The positive job growth that San Antonio/Austin provide, are welcome and appreciated by Texas Hill Country folks. Finally, "Texas Ranks High For Small Businesses" was a headline in the S.A. Express News. Texas is ranked third-best state for small business by the Small Business and Entrepreneurship council as part of its recent annual Small Business Survival Index. All these factors are reasons why our Real Estate markets should be on the rise sooner than later.
Mortgage rates increased slightly for the 30 year index to 4.81% last week according to Freddie Mac. Once again, rates remain at historically low levels. In my quest to search for Mortgage clients, most Realtors I have talked to have told me that their phones are ringing more and they have had an increase in showings. With lots of inventory remaining and the low mortgage rate environment, home buyers seem to be getting more serious. Buyers are realizing that rates and home prices may not remain this low forever. If this is you, find a local Realtor and Mortgage Loan Officer and let them show you how easy it is to still afford the American Dream of homeownership.
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Eyes of Texas Real Estate Shine Thursday, February 3, 2011 Texans bought and sold fewer homes last year than the year before, but prices held their own, the Texas Association of Realtors reported. A total of 202,916 houses changed hands in 2010, a 5% decline from 2009, the association said in its quarterly report. But the median price paid for those properties rose 1%, to $147,600. While the Lone Star State hasn't been immune to the economic downturn, TAR Chair Dwight Hale found it "encouraging that Texas real estate held its value so well." In the fourth quarter, 43,605 houses were sold in the state. That's down 18.9% from the fourth quarter of 2009. But that three-month period was "the most heavily government-stimulated quarter of that year," Jim Gaines, an economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, pointed out. "So, it's not surprising to see a substantial difference in sales volumes." Hale said his state's realty market is "in a stronger position than almost anywhere else in the country. Our homes are some of the most affordable in the country, and we're seeing job growth substantially greater than national averages, which will continue to fuel the recovery in Texas.
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By Tony Stevenson/SWBC Mortgage
Economic News Week: January 24, 2011
The DOW continued its 8th straight week of gains last Friday closing at 11,871. As 4th quarter corporate earnings begin to roll in, most are beating expectations which in turn is helping stocks. Southwest Airlines reported a 13% increase in profits as a stronger economy led more people to fly. New York banking giant-Morgan Stanley earnings rose 60% in the last three months of the year on strong banking results. One recent report stated that Americans are starting to get their household finances in order. From the encouraging earnings reports, major banks say fewer mortgages are going bad, credit card defaults are down and more people are paying their bills on time. Personal spending accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy and most economists agree that a fiscally fit consumer is critical to a strong economic recovery. Most economists would also agree that another way to a strong economy is through education. If so, then why cut education?
Local Economic News
San Antonio's December jobless rate fell to 7.6% from 7.8%. San Antonio's unemployment total is still stronger than Texas' and the nation's. The State's is 8.3% while the nation's is 9.4%. Austin's, however is even better as it boasts a 6.8% unemployment rate. The San Antonio/Austin areas are primed for more jobs. The announcement last week that San Antonio-alone will be producing some 27,300 jobs for 2011. This is progress in anyone's book.
Real Estate and Mortgage Industry News
San Antonio was the fourth most-popular real estate market in the country for online searches in 2010, according to Realtor.com. After San Antonio, Austin was in the top ten as well. The top 10 most searched real estate markets in 2010 were established based on the number of visitors that viewed properties in each city between January and December 2010 on Realtor.com. Mortgage rates remained about parr for the week. A flitter here and a flitter there caused rates to remain active, but not far from the 4.870% range of last week for the 30 year index.. Still, rates remain at very attractive levels which seems to be causing a stir in the purchase market.
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By Tony Stevenson/SWBC Mortgage
Economic News Week: January 17, 2011
The DOW rose to its highest level in 2 1/2 years closing at 11787 this past Friday. This is yet another indicator that stocks are on the rebound. The Federal Reserves survey of economic conditions (The Beige Book) reported that the U.S. economy ended on a positive note, with all parts of the country showing improvement. It was reported also last week that the housing market could gradually begin to emerge from its doldrums this year, industry experts said but, their forecast depends on a steady ramp up in hiring. Retail Sales rose in December for the 6th straight time to .08%. A report from the New York Times said that as Republicans choreograph a House vote to repeal The Health Care Bill this week, no change has stung Democrats more than the argument that the new law will "kill" jobs in a economy wobbling back to life. In the fight over whether the law will create or destroy jobs, both political parties cite evidence to support their claims. But many economists say the effect on jobs is likely to be modest: neither so negative as Republicans assert nor so positive the Democrats contend.
Local Economic News
The San Antonio area will see a job surge of 27,300 jobs in 2011, for an above average gain of 3.2 percent, Keith Phillips of the Federal Reserve-senior economist based in San Antonio predicted last week. Another report said last week that a "consensus is building" San Antonio will jump from a below-average year in job growth for 2010 to an above average year in 2011. This week-Friday the Texas Work Commission will release December's unemployment rate for San Antonio and other cities of the State. Plus, SABOR (San Antonio Board of Realtors) will release its December and year-end 2010 home sales data. Don't expect positive numbers in either case. But, instead look for the positive numbers in 2011. Especially after an estimated 27,300 jobs are created and folks are out spending and looking for a home. 2011 is the year for growth.
Real Estate and Mortgage Industry News
As I said above, with the job growth San Antonio expects for 2011-this will surely create an atmosphere of anticipation that when folks are working, folks are spending money. I would also think that with that many jobs, some will be out buying a home. Some San Antonio and surrounding Hill Country Realtors I have talked to have said that their business has picked up for January. Their phones are ringing more and appointment showings have increased. On the Mortgage rate front: Freddie Mac reported that mortgage rates on the 30 year fixed index dropped slightly to 4.71% last week from 4.77%. As a reminder, when Mortgage rates go up, the tend to rise quickly and vice versa. If you are thinking of buying a home this year, please seek the advice of a local Realtor and Mortgage Loan Officer. Home prices are very reasonable in most areas and mortgage rates are still at historically low levels. Keep in mind too, that when the $8k tax credit was available, home prices were higher. Now, that there is no tax credit, home prices are even lower saving you more than $8k in most cases.
Economic Data due this week: Monday: Markets closed. Wednesday: Building Permits and Housing Starts Report. Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Thursday: Philly Fed Index= A manufacturing survey. Thursday: Existing Home Sales Report.
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