By Tony Stevenson/SWBC Mortgage
Stocks finished mostly flat Friday as the DOW ended at 11,796.16 but, down from the previous week. The European debt crisis seems to be weighing heavily on all markets for the time being. However, the positive seems to be outweighing the negative economic picture here at home in the U.S. A string of better-than-expected economic reports this month has led some analysts to revise their forecasts for growth, according to an article in the S.A. Express News on Saturday. The most recent sign was Friday’s report by the Conference Board that its index of leading indicators surged 0.9 percent. The index is designed to predict economic activity. The October reading was its sixth consecutive increase. This past week, the government said Retail Sales in October and factory production were picking up. Plus, U.S. building permits , a gauge of future construction, surged nearly 11 percent. I bet you won’t hear any of this wonderful economic news in any of the debates. Consumers paid less for gas, cars, and computers in October, as the Consumer Price Index (retail prices paid by consumers) dropped 0.1 percent. Production was up 0.7 percent for October, the most in three months plus, Builder Sentiment rose to 20 in November-that’s the highest level since May 2010. Did you also notice in the news that jobless claims are getting better-little by little? “388,000 level marks first time in 7 months that its been below 400,000,” was headline regarding the jobs reports just last week. Jobs for Veterans received a boost as a little part of President Obama’s jobs bill was approved by Congress last week. All good news and just in time for the Christmas Season-except for the fact that we have a bunch of “turkeys” on the so called “Super Committee” that can’t come to agreement on cutting the deficit and raising taxes. Our economy is politics-driven for the time being. You be the judge as to who is causing any slowdown in economic activity and jobs.
Even though this is a short week because of the Thanksgiving Holiday, there is a lot of economic activity and reports due all the way through Wednesday. Make it a point to watch how these reports turn out. See below: Economic Data due this week.
Local Economic News
A big “Thank-You” goes out to HEB. The Texas retail grocery chain opened 4 new HEB Plus stores this past week generating 700 Texas jobs. Locally, Boerne and Kerrville had simultaneous openings on Friday and just in time for Thanksgiving shoppers. HEB is doing its part for our Texas economy.
“1500 oil jobs coming to city” was another headline this past week regarding oil industry giant-Halliburton’s plans to hire 75 percent locally (San Antonio area). “This is great news. It’s the biggest single-day announcement San Antonio has had since Toyota,” said former Mayor Henry Cisneros, chairman of the S.A. Economic Development Foundation. As a matter of fact, San Antonio’s jobless rate fell from 8% to 7.7% last month. It’s the first decline in the monthly rate since February, and if drilling in the Eagle Ford shale keeps going strong (as is predicted) the unemployment number could decline faster in the months ahead for Texas, and especially the Alamo City area including South Texas and the Texas Hill Country. Texas’ unemployment rate is 8.4%. “Private employers continue to invest their capital in the growing Texas workforce,” said Texas Workforce Commission Chairman Tom Pauken in a recent statement.
Real Estate and Mortgage Industry News
The San Antonio area housing market continued a solid performance in October. The number of sales in October rose to 1,349, up 5 percent compared with the same time last year. I talked with some realtors involved in the Highland Lakes Women Council of Realtors in Marble Falls recently and the sentiment is that sales activity has picked up in that area as more buyers seem to be entering the market. I am hearing the same across the Texas Hill Country, including Kerrville, Blanco, Fredericksburg, and Johnson City. Low mortgage rates continue to play a huge part in that activity. Freddie Mac reported that the 30 year fixed rate index ticked-up to 4% last week-up from 3.99% the week before. The housing sector plays a crucial part in our economic growth as well. Construction workers, inspectors, and appraisers all play a very important part in housing growth.
As foreclosures enter the market, I believe these distressed sales should be “excluded” from the appraisal process. Foreclosed property numbers do not represent a home’s true value in my opinion. But, the appraisers hands are tied. Appraisers are required to use “sold” foreclosure numbers when reporting recent comps. Maybe the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors could join forces and bring the issue up for a resolution? In the meantime, if you know of anyone looking to buy into the American Dream, have them contact a local Realtor and Mortgage Lender while the getting is good!
Economic Data due this week: Monday: Existing Home Sales report for October. Tuesday: 3rd Quarter GDP released. Wednesday: Weekly Jobless claims. Wednesday: Freddie Mac releases weekly mortgage rates. Wednesday: FOMC Minutes released from November meeting. Wednesday: Durable Goods Report for October. Wednesday: Personal Income and Spending for October. Thursday: Markets closed for Thanksgiving. Friday: Stock Markets closed at 1PM EST. Friday: Bond Markets closed at 2pm EST.
(This article is for informational purposes only. Do not use it as financial advice. If you would like to be removed from this email, please reply “remove” in the subject line. For questions/comments contact Tony Stevenson at 1.800.460.6990 or email: tstevenson@swbc.com)
Tony Stevenson can be reached at:
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